Metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain Untuk Peramalan Curah Hujan Harian
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Abstract
Cilacap Regency has diverse topography and geographical conditions which cause this region to have rainfall that varies spatially and temporally; therefore, a forecasting method to overcome these uncertainties and fluctuations is needed. Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain utilizes Fuzzy logic which provides flexibility in handling uncertain and unstructured data. Moreover, the addition of Markov chain elements that utilize Fuzzy logic concepts provides flexibility in handling data allowing the model to capture inter-time relationships and changes in system state that depend on previous states. Therefore, the research aims to see the suitability of the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain for predicting daily rainfall in Cilacap Regency. The method is suitable for predicting rainfall data for Cilacap Regency. The accuracy value in this study can be seen from the RMSE and SMAPE values on the training data (in-sample), respectively, which are 58.76469 and 0.7227493. Meanwhile, the testing data (out sample) was 56.01818 and 0.7055117.
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